Coronavirus - Senegal: International Monetary Fund (IMF) Staff completes Review Mission to Senegal
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on economic activity, exacerbated by border closures, a curfew, and social distancing
The GDP growth rate is projected at 1.1 percent for 2020 compared to 5.3 percent in 2019
End-of-Mission press releases include statements of IMF staff teams that convey preliminary findings after a visit to a country. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF's Executive Board for discussion and decision.
A staff team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), led by Ms. Corinne Deléchat, conducted a virtual mission from June 2-12, 2020 and engaged in discussions as part of the first review of the IMF’s Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) approved in January 2020.
At the conclusion of this mission, Ms. Deléchat issued the following statement:
The IMF team reached staff-level agreement with the authorities on economic and financial policies that could support approval of the first review of their three-year program under the PCI. The IMF Executive Board could consider the first review in the second half of July 2020.
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on economic activity, exacerbated by border closures, a curfew, and social distancing. The GDP growth rate is projected at 1.1 percent for 2020 compared to 5.3 percent in 2019. These forecasts are based on the control of the spread of the pandemic, the implementation of measures to support the economy, and a gradual recovery of economic activity during the second half of 2020. The forecasts are nonetheless subject to major downside risks.
To mitigate the effects of the crisis attributable to COVID-19, the government has set up an economic and social resilience program to strengthen the health system and to support households, the Senegalese diaspora, as well as firms and their employees. In April 2020, the IMF disbursed US$442 million (100 percent of Senegal’s quota), i.e., about CFAF 263 billion or approximately 2 percent of GDP under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) and the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF), thus providing immediate liquidity to support the government in its implementation of the national COVID-19 response plan (plan de riposte).
The performance of the PCI-supported program is satisfactory. At end-December 2019, all quantitative targets under the program, except for one on the share of single-sourced public tenders, were met, and significant progress was achieved in attaining the reform objectives for end-June. In particular, Fund staff welcome the finalization of the medium-term revenue mobilization strategy, whose implementation in the second half of 2020 will support economic revitalization measures.
A comprehensive assessment of the impact of the pandemic on revenue collection and supplementary expenditure requirements raises the estimated budget deficit to 6.1 percent of GDP in 2020. The authorities have stated their commitment to implementing measures that are temporary, well-targeted, cost-effective, and fully reflected in a revised budget. They intend to return gradually to a budget deficit of 3 percent of GDP through 2022 (WAEMU convergence criterion) as the crisis abates. The authorities are also committed to taking steps to strengthen transparency and accountability regarding emergency expenditure.
With respect to economic support measures, it is important to ensure that financing assistance for firms is properly coordinated and targeted, and to ensure that the requirements for eligibility for the various facilities are clarified. Such support should also be based on appropriate risk-sharing in order to limit moral hazard and fiscal costs. Direct transfers intended for viable firms should be evaluated on a basis of cost-benefit analysis.
The crisis represents an opportunity to expand social safety nets and enhance the effectiveness of the available instruments for supporting small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The government will examine the possibility of broadening social safety nets in cooperation with its development partners. In addition, the government intends to accelerate the strengthening of the coordination of entities and programs whose mission is to support SMEs.
The structural reforms of public financial management will continue, with the full implementation of program budgets beginning with the 2021 budget law, tightened control over treasury deposit accounts ( comptes de dépôt), strengthening of the Treasury Single Account, as well as sound debt management. The government is also continuing to prepare the governance framework to manage revenues generated by hydrocarbon operations.
The team wishes to thank the authorities for the close cooperation and frank discussions.
Distributed by APO Group on behalf of International Monetary Fund (IMF).